Interesting Times: What History Tells Us About Today's Aviation Finance Market

We are living in interesting times. I was reminded of this while reading a recent article by Nick Timaros in The Wall Street Journal, in which he noted that our economy has navigated four supply shocks in five years. Those being the Covid supply chain issues, the war in Ukraine, tariffs, and now Iran. 

If it seems like a lot, it’s ok, because it IS a lot. It’s sort of wild to see how well our economy has withstood these shocks. In fact, in our world of business aviation, we’ve lived in a great market with seemingly endless opportunities.

Yet, as things remain tenuous in the Middle East and energy prices continue to hit our pocketbooks and complicate the Federal Reserve’s rate path, it’s a reminder that times could change on a dime, and things can look quite scary on the horizon. 

A great example is what’s happening in the US Treasury markets. As of March 2, 2026, the 10-year Treasury yield was 3.95%. As of May 20, that rate had increased to 4.65%, up 0.70% and touching levels not seen since January 2025. There are a few drivers at play, which we’ll unpack in future updates as interest rate clarity presents itself. That, plus the pain we feel every time we fill our gas tank, creates an uncomfortable feeling of uncertainty about where prices are going. 

Yet in reality, uncertainty is more common than we think. In April, we celebrated the successful Artemis II mission, where four astronauts flew to the moon and back. This reminded me of the Apollo 8 mission in December 1968. If we go in the wayback machine to 1968, we’d enter a country and world that were probably even more confused and scared. 

At the time, there was uncertainty around an escalating war in Vietnam, and our country was wounded from the assassination of two major leaders, Martin Luther King, Jr., and Robert F. Kennedy. Things were dark, and the feeling of hope was going away.

In an effort to demonstrate how far ahead of the Russians we were in our efforts to land on the Moon, Apollo 8’s mission was devised to launch a then-untested Saturn V rocket, fly three astronauts to the moon, and return safely to Earth. As mission planning went deeper, it was decided not only to fly to the moon, but also to slow down and orbit it. 

And so, on December 21, 1968, Frank Borman, Jim Lovell, and Bill Anders launched to the moon. On December 24, 1968, while orbiting the moon, Bill Anders snapped what became one of the most iconic photos in human history. “Earthrise” (as seen below, credited to NASA) showed us as we truly were, for the first time in human history. This action completely changed our perspectives on who we were and the challenges we faced, and brought in a fresh mindset as we entered 1969.

‍

‍

Back to Artemis II. Here we are in 2026, facing our own challenges and concerns about what the future holds. This time, four astronauts launched to the Moon, Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, Christina Koch, and Jeremy Hansen, to demonstrate what we are still able to accomplish as a people. This time, on April 6, 2026, a new image was taken. 

‍

‍

We now, yet again, have the chance to see ourselves as we truly are and to see the opportunity on the horizon. Will there be a lot of ups and downs in the future? Yes. Are we uncertain as to where things end up in the Middle East, where energy prices, inflation, and interest rates go?  Yes. Yet, we’ll find a way to navigate it.

‍

There is a tremendous opportunity in the future.

‍