On my way home from EAA Oshkosh last week, I was thinking about how quickly the year is moving. I usually look at that summer event as the kick-off to the second half of the year…as hard as that is to believe.
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As we reach the latter stages of summer, I’m reminded of something I’ve discussed previously…this concept of certainty. Over my 15 years of working in aircraft lending, I’ve been reminded that business owners (and, as a result, aircraft buyers) ultimately like to make decisions when they feel like they have clarity of what’s going to happen, which creates an environment of certainty.Â
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Two recent examples prove this point. Back in 2020, the Covid pandemic caused a great pause in aircraft purchasing, for good reason. Once we had an idea of the virus’s actual impacts, purchasing continued. Last year, the back-and-forth on tariffs created tremendous uncertainty and led to another pause in purchasing. Once we had a clearer idea of the tariff impacts, purchasing resumed.
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And just when we thought we had things figured out this year, the Iranian War started. You don’t need me to tell you the on-and-off closure of the Strait of Hormuz has created uncertainty in the energy markets, and the entire conflict has created geopolitical uncertainty, which has also indirectly caused a some material increases in interest rates across the board…for example as of July 24 the 10 year treasury rate is about 0.50% higher than it was at the start of 2026.
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It’s really not a surprise to me that we experienced periods of slowness in loan closings in the first half of 2026, since in reality, we have been working through yet another period of uncertainty.
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Yet, as we enter the second half of 2026, another reality is on the horizon: year-end. At some point, a mental conflict arises around risks: is it a bigger risk to wait for uncertainty to play out, or risk tax implications of not making the business moves you need to make this fiscal year?
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I’ll be interested to see how that mental conflict plays out through the rest of this year.
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Early indications on our end are that the calendar flipping to July triggered a shift in priorities, and year-end pressure is starting to outweigh current economic uncertainty. But that could be a moment in time. Further increases in oil prices, continued escalation in the Middle East, a material change in interest rates… just more potential to create uncertainty. And we’ve surely seen that in the past couple of weeks (years?).
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