As we push toward the end of January, I want to wish you one last “happy new year!” from Columbus, Ohio. The Scope team is mostly recovered from what turned out to be a very strong 2025. Looking back at the year, it’s incredible to see how it ended after how it started.
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If you go into the way-back machine, you’d remember that, at the start of 2025, there was tremendous optimism that the Trump administration was going to jump-start the economy with favorable tax policy, and in our industry, that meant a rapid return to the accelerated depreciation schedules of yesteryear. The industry saw a lot of 2024 closing volume pull forward into 2025 which resulted in a busy January for all.
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As the calendar turned to spring, we all pulled out our high school US history books to remember what the word “tariff” meant and how it worked. Second quarter was a quarter of learning and navigating as tariff policy changed daily, with a new dynamic of including aircraft transactions.
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As we were dealing with this new big, beautiful reality, a better use of the adjectives “big and beautiful” came out with the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” where Congress passed the much-anticipated tax law changes forecasted in January. That, coupled with tariff clarity throughout the third quarter, set up the stage for an incredible “last third” of 2025.
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From an interest rate perspective, we saw the Federal Reserve lower its benchmark rate three times in 2025, which resulted in a downward shift in rates. We also saw tension between the Fed Chair Jay Powell and President Trump reach a new high, which further peaked in early January, with the announcement of a federal investigation into Jay Powell.
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So, what can 2025 teach us about 2026? Expect change and transition. Chair Powell’s term expires in May 2026, and President Trump is close to nominating his successor. While that may have an impact on rates, the Fed ended 2025 the most divided it’s been in decades, with three board members voting against the rest with their December rate cut vote.
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Tariff policy has settled out, especially on the aircraft transaction side of things (for conversation’s sake, I’m not even going to touch the Greenland situation). Bigger picture, tariff impacts take time to work through the economy. So don’t underestimate the impact aircraft owners may feel in their own businesses.Â
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And, as we continue to see, geopolitical dynamics remain uncertain, and that
always has the potential to impact various components of our and the world’s economy. 2025 showed us the value of regular connection and communication, so we can all remain informed and ready to navigate the world as it comes. That’s the spirit of The Plane Truth, and our goal as we look to provide timely finance updates and economic anecdotes as we work through 2026.
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As we say at Scope, “here we go!!” I wish you a prosperous and fun 2026!
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